Modernization of the Chinese Army and the Challenges Facing the United States

By ipsc

July 9, 2025

By Dr Maryam Varij Kazemi
Researcher in Geopolitical Issues
International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC

Introduction

Despite economic challenges, China is equipping and modernising its military, backed by a rapidly expanding defence industrial base that develops and produces weapon systems. These systems are designed to deter the United States or, if deterrence fails, to put Beijing in a position to win a major conflict.

According to official statistics, China’s defence spending increases every year, showing growth of over 7%. In this context, China has become the world’s largest shipbuilder — with a capacity 230 times greater than that of the U.S. — and its navy is now the largest in the world. Its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles is expanding at an unprecedented rate. In addition, China’s nuclear stockpile is growing faster than any other country’s, and the military is pursuing innovative technologies and tactics, such as offensive drones.

Given the modernisation of China’s military in recent years, experts are asking whether Beijing might one day challenge the U.S.-led global order. The answer depends on what China intends to do with its growing military capabilities — and what it is actually able to achieve.

A Globally Positioned Army

President Xi Jinping has openly declared his aim to create a globally capable, cohesive military — a goal that has shaped his agenda since taking control of the Chinese Communist Party in 2012. In 2015, Xi launched the most extensive reform of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) since the 1950s, establishing a joint command structure modelled on the U.S. military.

These reforms reorganised seven previous military regions into five theatre commands and created a joint structure to coordinate integrated, multi-domain operations. China also unveiled its Rocket Force, now responsible for its nuclear and conventional missiles, and its Strategic Support Force (SSF), tasked with space, cyber, and electronic warfare capabilities (1).

A Maritime Power

Of the navy, air force, and missile force, President Xi has prioritised the navy. For the vision Xi seeks, the emergence of China as a major maritime power by 2035, paving the way for national rejuvenation is essential. Learning from decades of U.S., British, and allied maritime dominance, which secured their global influence and control of shipping lanes, Beijing is determined to achieve the same.

Currently, China’s navy has about 370 ships — including large surface combatants, ocean-going amphibious ships, submarines, aircraft carriers, mine warfare vessels, and support fleets — expected to reach 435 ships by 2030. By contrast, the U.S. Navy has 296 ships, projected to drop to 294 by 2030. The British Royal Navy Surface Fleet and Royal Fleet Auxiliary, Europe’s largest after Russia, has 10 Submarines and 70 vessels (2). Experts also note that civilian transport ships are often used to conceal Chinese military movements and provide logistical support to its bases in the South China Sea, as are cruise ships.

China’s naval expansion is backed by its vast and sophisticated defence industrial base, producing technologies such as diesel engines, advanced electronic systems, submarines, and unmanned systems like autonomous underwater vehicles (AUVs) and drones (3).

Battle in Space

Beijing is modernising its strategic missile arsenal, expected to exceed 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030, many likely capable of striking the continental U.S. While still smaller than U.S. and Russian stockpiles, the pace of China’s nuclear build-up is unmatched. Similarly, its space capabilities are expanding at a remarkable rate. The U.S. Space Force chief has warned that China is deploying military capabilities in space at an alarming pace, raising the risk of conflict in Earth orbit. In 2022 and 2023, China led the world in defence related satellite launches. It also launched a Yaogan-41 remote-sensing satellite capable of identifying and tracking objects as small as cars in the Indo-Pacific — threatening U.S. and allied assets in the region.

Beijing’s space efforts are a cornerstone of its broader strategy of “intelligentized” warfare — introduced by the Chinese Communist Party in 2019 — which prioritises advanced technologies, autonomous systems, and artificial intelligence to improve battlefield efficiency and disrupt or even control enemy decision-making.

Chinese military strategists argue that this approach depends on superior information processing, AI-driven analysis, and swarms of drones — which pose a real threat to the U.S. For example, mysterious drones have been observed over Langley Air Force Base in Virginia, U.S. bases in Britain, over Donald Trump’s property in New Jersey, and a U.S. military research and production centre.

Meanwhile, the U.S. and its allies have yet to effectively align their defence industrial bases for deterrence, let alone to outpace China’s growing military capabilities, which increasingly confront the U.S.-led order. Experts suggest that Washington and its allies must adopt not only a defensive but also an offensive posture. This burden falls largely on the U.S., and to a lesser extent on its Indo-Pacific allies such as Australia, India, and Japan through groups like the Quad and AUKUS.

U.S. Defence Limitations

Some experts believe the U.S. military lacks the ammunition, equipment, and information warfare capabilities needed for a prolonged conflict with China, particularly to counter Beijing’s cognitive warfare efforts. This view is based on a wargame simulation in the Taiwan Strait, which indicated that the U.S. could run out of long-range precision-guided missiles in less than a week.

Moreover, the U.S. defence industrial base currently lacks the surge capacity to make up for such shortfalls, and its supply chains are fragile — relying on foreign sources including China for critical strategic minerals like iron, alloying metals, and non-ferrous metals essential for defence production.

In response to Washington’s tightened restrictions on semiconductor exports to China, Beijing announced it would cut exports of gallium, germanium, and antimony to the U.S., aiming to cripple U.S. strategic military production. Nonetheless, Washington is developing alternative sources of strategic minerals, including in Africa and, to some extent, in Scandinavian countries.

AI Development

China is rapidly expanding its military capabilities — including its arsenal of missiles, jets, and ships — alongside significant investments in military AI. This development worries the U.S., as it could give China a substantial advantage in future conflicts.

China sees AI development in its military as a way to enhance its ability to counter U.S. capabilities. While the U.S. has invested heavily in AI and other advanced technologies, China is striving to match these investments to maintain a competitive edge.

However, deploying AI in China’s military is not without challenges. Developing AI systems requires large amounts of data and computing power, which may be difficult to obtain in a country with limited access to these resources. Moreover, military use of AI raises serious ethical concerns, as it could be used for decisions with significant human consequences (4).

Outlook

China’s interest in military modernisation is nothing new, as the country has sought for decades to expand its global influence — especially in the Indo-Pacific. This region offers China strategic opportunities in both geoeconomics and geostrategy, raising concerns for the U.S. and its allies. Therefore, to diminish Chinese military power, efforts to revitalise the U.S. defence industrial base, relocate critical supply chains, and increase investment in advanced military technologies are expected to continue. In the coming years, the U.S. and its allies are also likely to shift from a defensive to an offensive posture.

Keywords: China, Army, Defence & Security, United States,