Declining water levels Archives - International Peace Studies Centre

A Strategic Reading of Iran’s Victory in the Confrontation with Israel and the United States (June 13-24, 2025)

Seyed Salman Safavi International Centre for Peace Studies – IPSC Introduction The period from June 13 to 24, 2025 witnessed the escalation of an unprecedented military confrontation between Israel and Iran, as Israel carried out its first attacks on Iran’s missile sites and nuclear facilities, followed by American strikes, Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel and the US air base in Qatar (Al-Udeid). This was followed by the fragile truce mediated by Qatar and The U.S.. (Washington Post, June 24, 2025). Al-Jazeera, June 24, 2025). Israel was defeated in four areas: military, legal, political, and moral: 1. Military dimension The attack failed to achieve its strategic objectives: It could not destroy Iran’s missile capability. It could not destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. In contrast, Iran proved its missile capability. Iran dominated the skies of Israel, and the Iron Dome failed. Although the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes were aimed at destroying

June 26, 2025

Israel’s defeat by Iran: ceasefire and the path ahead

By Seyyed Sadr al-Din Safavi International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC On June 24, 2025, a fragile ceasefire mediated by the U.S. and Qatar came into effect between Iran and Israel, following Israel’s illegal war against Iran. Israel failed to achieve its objectives in its attack on Iran. Throughout the 11-day conflict, Israeli messaging regarding its military aims was at best confused. Iran effectively absorbed the initial damage caused by Israel’s strikes. By immediately restructuring its military command, Iran was able to leverage its defensive missile capabilities, UAVs, and diplomatic strength. Israel had assumed that decapitating Iran’s military leadership would deal a fatal blow to Iran. This miscalculation amongst others, combined with the coordinated and successful performance of Iran’s armed forces, resulted in Israel’s first decisive military defeat. From a military standpoint, Iran demonstrated its prowess by decisively overpowering Israel’s much-vaunted Iron Dome. Iran’s precision ballistic missile strikes successfully hit

June 24, 2025

U.S. Hegemony and the Threat to World Peace

By Seyed Salman Safavi International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Abstract Based on historical facts, the military, political, and economic policies of the U.S. government against the majority of the world’s nations constitute the most important threat to global peace and security. The U.S. was the first country to build a nuclear weapon and the only country to have used it, killing more than 100,000 civilians in Japan with a nuclear bomb. The United States has waged numerous wars against the nations of the world in different parts of the world, such as the wars in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now the military attack on Iran (June 2025). The imposition of US economic sanctions on the nations of the world has caused many problems in the lives of millions of people across the world. America’s all-out support for Israel’s occupation and aggression has led to the displacement and death

June 23, 2025

The US and Israel’s illegal war against Iran: The violation of the rule of law

By Seyyed Sadr al-Din Safavi International Peace Studies Centre Israel’s attack on Iran on the 13th of June 2025, which began with the extrajudicial killing of Iranian nuclear scientists, the assassination of several Iranian military leaders, civilian deaths, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites which are under the monitor of the IAEA, and military sites across Iran and has expanded to include civilian areas including hospitals, and news organisations leading to more than 400 deaths and 2000 injuries is a violation of international law and the UN charter. Israel justified its war on Iran as pre-emptive self-defence under Article 51 of the UN charter, citing an existential threat from the Iranian nuclear program. However, as Iran has no nuclear weapons, nor is building nuclear weapons and had not demonstrated an imminent intent to attack Israel, Israel’s war on Iran constitutes the crime of aggression and is a violation of

June 22, 2025

Russia’s approach to the Taliban: From removing the label “Terrorist”, to deepening strategic cooperation

By Dr. Masoumeh Mohammadi International Relations Researcher International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Following the geopolitical developments in the region and the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, Russia has adopted a pragmatic and gradual policy toward the group. The removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations in April 2025, increased diplomatic interactions, security and economic cooperation, and efforts to mediate regional conflicts all indicate a shift in Moscow’s approach from confrontation to engagement with the Taliban. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 led to significant changes in the foreign policies of regional and extra-regional countries. Russia, considering its geopolitical and security interests, has adopted a cautious yet pragmatic approach toward the Taliban. This approach includes diplomatic interactions, security and economic cooperation, and efforts to solidify its position as a key player in regional dynamics. Removal of the Taliban from the List of Terrorist

May 22, 2025

Trump’s Strategy in the Middle East: Arms, Changes, and Isolation

By Fatemeh Khadem Shirazi Researcher and University Lecturer International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Note Donald Trump’s policies against Iran in the Middle East, particularly during his visit to Saudi Arabia, reflected a systematic effort to shift the balance of power in the region. Trump utilised tools such as economic pressure, psychological warfare, and direct and indirect humiliation of Iran to achieve his goals of curbing Iran’s regional influence. These policies closely resembled the “maximum pressure” strategy initiated at the start of his presidency. Withdrawing from the JCPOA and imposing extensive sanctions on Iran reinforced Trump’s belief that economic pressure and highlighting Iran’s domestic issues would eventually force Tehran to acquiesce to Washington’s demands. Trump employed diplomatic platforms, such as his visit to Riyadh, and psychological tools, including media campaigns, to amplify Iran’s domestic challenges, managerial weaknesses, and public dissatisfaction, aiming to create a rift between the Iranian people and

May 18, 2025

The Emerging Energy Corridor Rivalry between Türkiye and Israel

Davoud Ahmadzadeh West Asia Affairs Expert International Peace Studies Center – IPSC The fall of the Assad regime in Syria has revived Türkiye’s plans to construct oil and gas pipelines through the country, transforming it into a regional “energy corridor” for neighbouring nations. Some of these projects offer a more convenient land route for exporting energy to Europe via Türkiye from the Arab Persian Gulf states, posing a challenge to Israel’s similar ambitions. While Israel has alternative opportunities to export its natural gas to new markets through pipelines, Türkiye’s oil and gas projects seem to risk weakening Israel’s position and its cooperation with Greece and Cyprus. Israel must closely monitor the “pipeline game” in Syria to ensure that new economic opportunities do not conflict with its interests and regional strategies. The collapse of Assad in December 2024 revived several Turkish-led energy infrastructure projects that had been abandoned due to Syria’s

April 16, 2025

In Today’s Turbulent World, Is Politics Dead?

Dr. Saman Faridouni Political Sociology Researcher International Peace Studies Center – IPSC “In our age, there are no longer real events, only representations of what might be real.” — Jean Baudrillard The world is chaotic, resembling a digital science-fiction game! For nearly three years, Russia and Ukraine have been at war, resulting in hundreds of thousands dead, wounded, and displaced, alongside massive material and infrastructural damage. Trump seizes power, declaring his ambitious and inhumane policies under the banner of “restoring America’s greatness.” Israel turns Gaza and Lebanon into fields of fire and blood, leaving thousands dead. Sudan has been burning in the hell of civil war for years, with millions displaced. Congo and Rwanda are embroiled in conflict, leaving hundreds of thousands homeless. Türkiye is in turmoil… The world is no longer a safe place, and instead of progressing politically and socially, it descends further into disorder and instability each day.

April 7, 2025

Nowruz: The Eternal Heritage of Iranian Culture in Eurasia, from the Balkans to Russia

By Ali Baman Eqbali Zarche Senior Eurasia Expert International Peace Studies Center (IPSC) “All human beings are limbs of one another, For they are created from the same essence. If one limb is afflicted with pain, The other limbs cannot remain at ease.” As we enter the year 1404 (2025-2026), the fragrance of spring blends with the spring of the Quran and the month of Ramadan, infusing Nowruz 1404 with a unique vitality, especially during the nights of Qadr. Wishing the best for all humanity, particularly Muslims and our dear compatriots, we reflect on Nowruz as a symbol of Iranian civilization and a beacon of soft power, albeit in a somewhat stagnant state. For over three millennia, the historical and traditional interactions between the people of Iran and the nations of the Balkans and surrounding regions have flourished. Dr. Bastani Parizi highlights two significant documented events in the history of

March 24, 2025

The Negative Consequences of the Declining Water Level in the Caspian Sea

Dr. Maryam Variej Kazemi Researcher in Geopolitical Affairs International Peace Studies Center – IPSC From April 2023 to April 2024, the water level of the Caspian Sea basin relative to global sea levels dropped from -27.90 to -25.28, marking the lowest level observed in the past 30 years. Predictions indicate that if current patterns persist, the Caspian Sea could lose up to 34% of its surface area and 18 meters of its depth by the year 2100, rendering vast stretches of shallow coastal lands uninhabitable. This would severely impact the livelihoods of over 10 million people living along the coasts, many of whom rely on fishing and maritime trade for their survival (1). Although local communities around the Caspian Sea do not view the declining water levels as unusual—believing that the Caspian has always been subject to regular cycles of expansion and contraction, with water levels rising for 25 years

March 5, 2025

The Geostrategic Importance of Libya for the Parties Involved in the Crisis

Dr. Maryam Variej Kazemi Researcher in Geostrategic Studies International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Libya’s geostrategic position and its role in the production and export of oil and gas mean that internal developments in Libya are not only vital for its people but also for neighbouring countries in North Africa and across the Mediterranean in Southern Europe. Therefore, mitigating or preventing conditions that could lead to Libya becoming a failed state is of critical importance. The geostrategic significance of Libya implies that foreign powers will not allow any single party to achieve a decisive victory. This is because external intervenors are pursuing their own interests rather than Libya’s. The substantial financial contributions of Türkiye and Qatar to Libya after the revolution were distributed equally among all parties. Thus, anyone who claims that Qatar only supports Islamists is mistaken. The involvement of these countries in the first year of the revolution

January 27, 2025

Outlook of Relations Between Iran and Pakistan – 2025

Fatemeh Khadem Shirazi Researcher and University Lecturer International Peace Studies Center (IPSC) Pakistan is a strategic partner for Iran in key economic and security fields. The recent visit of the Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces to Pakistan, where he met with the Pakistani President, the Minister of Defence, and other civilian and military officials, could have multiple security implications. Discussions focused on regional security, counter-terrorism measures, and joint border management. Closer Iran-Pakistan relations, especially economic cooperation, may lead to several security outcomes. On one hand, this collaboration could strengthen bilateral ties and joint efforts against terrorist threats and separatist groups. On the other hand, it may negatively impact relations with other countries, particularly India. This article seeks to address the following questions: What are the shared security threats and challenges between Iran and Pakistan? What role does China play in the Iran-Pakistan relationship? What are the security

January 23, 2025

Russia’s Approach to Syria After the Fall of Bashar al-Assad’s Government

Dr. Masoumeh Mohammadi Geopolitical Affairs Researcher International Peace Studies Center (IPSC) Since 2015, Russia has been directly involved in the Syrian crisis, becoming one of the primary supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This intervention aimed to prevent the collapse of Assad’s government, protect Moscow’s strategic interests in the region, and counter Western influence. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government marks a turning point in Syria’s developments, ushering Russia’s policies and role in the country into a new phase. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has acknowledged that Assad’s fall does not signify Russia’s defeat in Syria, demonstrating that the country has long-term plans for its presence and influence in the Middle East. Reassessing Russia’s Key Interests in Syria In the post-Assad era, Russia continues to pursue its strategic objectives, though its strategies may undergo adjustments. The strategic importance of the Tartus and Hmeimim bases remains paramount, and Russia will strive to

January 1, 2025

The Zangezur Corridor and Iran’s Opportunities

Dr. Maryam Viraj Kazemi Researcher in Geopolitical Affairs International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Keywords: Zangezur Corridor, Turkey, Azerbaijan, Iran, Trade, Economy Introduction Economic corridors connect economic factors along a specific geography. They provide vital linkages between economic hubs, typically concentrated in urban landscapes, by developing infrastructure such as railways or pipelines. By reducing trade barriers, increasing trade volume, and fostering economic growth, these corridors enhance cooperation and development among neighboring countries. Economic corridors can be designed to attract new investments, boost agricultural production, ensure free access to natural resources, and facilitate their export to global markets. Although economic corridors are not a new phenomenon, their development has intensified in recent years. These corridors cross international borders on nearly every continent, span hundreds of kilometers, and penetrate remote areas (1). The Zangezur Corridor Amidst this, the Zangezur Corridor—a geopolitical project connecting Europe to Central Asia and China via Azerbaijan and

December 23, 2024

The Rise and Fall of Media Freedom in Afghanistan: From Post-2001 Progress to Taliban Repression

By Dr. Zahra Darbandsari International Affairs Researcher International Peace Studies Center – IPSC The media flourished in Afghanistan between 2001 and 2021 as a key part of the country’s reconstruction and nation-building efforts. This period, which began with international support, was marked by the enactment of media laws and the expansion of related institutions, paving the way for media freedoms and unprecedented growth in the Afghan media landscape. Starting in 2002, media outlets, supported by international organizations, began operating and played a significant role in raising awareness and fostering social development. One of the major milestones of this era was the adoption of Afghanistan’s constitution in 2004, which recognised media freedom. This constitution allowed media to operate freely across social, political, and economic domains. The establishment of regulatory bodies such as the High Media Council and the Mass Media Commission helped strengthen the legal framework for media. By 2021, Afghanistan

December 7, 2024

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