Arab NATO Archives - International Peace Studies Centre

Future of Russian Military Bases in Syria

By Dr Maryam Varij Kazemi Geopolitical Researcher International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Following the rise of Syria’s new regime, it adopted a hardline stance toward Russia, casting doubt on the future of Russia’s presence in the country. As part of these developments, Russia significantly reduced its military footprint in Syria, relocating troops and transferring substantial weaponry, naval vessels, aircraft, and equipment to other bases across the region. Notably, Russia expanded and reinforced its military facilities in Libya, signalling a potential complete withdrawal from Syria. Amidst rekindled relations with Libya, Russia has relied on the Al-Khadim airbase near Benghazi to bolster its military presence in Africa’s Sahel region (1). However, by early 2025, signs of a shift began to emerge. Multiple reports indicated that Russia and Syria were negotiating to maintain Russia’s military presence in Syria. Yet, as of June 2025, no progress had been made, and officially, Russian forces

August 2, 2025

Syrian Druze: Their current state, Variables affecting the future and prospects of federalism or independence

By Dr Saman Fereidouni Political Sociology Researcher International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC The Syrian Druze, as one of the most prominent religious and ethnic minorities in the Levant, have played an important role in the history and politics of Syria. Concentrated mainly in Suwayda Governorate and the Jabal al-Druze region, this community—thanks to its social cohesion, distinct religious identity, and strategic geographic position—has always influenced the country’s political and military developments. Given the complexities of Syria’s civil war, foreign interventions, and the internal dynamics of the Druze society, this article attempts to provide a comprehensive analysis of the minority’s situation. The Druze are an ethno-religious group whose roots lie in Ismaʿili Islam; they emerged in 11th-century Egypt during the Fatimid Caliphate (1). Calling themselves al-Muwaḥḥidūn (Monotheists), they developed a closed society because of their esoteric and mystical beliefs and the safeguarding of religious secrets (2). In Syria, their population

July 29, 2025

Iran–China Cooperation: Strategic Convergence amid Complex Challenges

Dr Mohammad Mahdi Mazaheri Researcher in International Relations / Director of the Centre for Dialogue and Cooperation of Silk Road Nations In recent years, amid the intensification of Western sanctions against Iran, the relationship between the Islamic Republic of Iran and the People’s Republic of China has evolved and become multifaceted. Rooted in shared strategic and economic interests, this partnership has been shaped by both regional and international dynamics, and has entered a new phase following Israel’s 12-day attack on Iran in June 2025. From Iran’s perspective, the main priorities in its relations with China include reducing dependency on oil revenues, diversifying non-oil exports, attracting foreign investment into critical infrastructure and industries, and circumventing unilateral Western sanctions. Iran seeks a powerful partner capable of supporting its technological advancement, infrastructure development, and economic growth. Moreover, Beijing’s political backing in international forums—especially in countering Western pressures, is of significant value for Iran.

July 24, 2025

Disputes Between Russia and Azerbaijan: Examining Roots and Reciprocal Approaches in Light of Recent South Caucasus Developments

By Dr Masumeh Muhammadi International Relations researcher International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Introduction The South Caucasus region has long been recognized as one of the focal points in the geopolitical dynamics of Eurasia, holding significant importance for both regional and extra-regional powers. Within this context, the relations between Russia and the Republic of Azerbaijan, despite past cooperation, have entered a phase of complexity and challenge in recent years—particularly following the Second Karabakh War (2020). These developments have taken on new dimensions amid structural shifts in the international order. After the end of the 2020 Karabakh War, Russia played a pivotal role in post-war management by deploying peacekeeping forces. However, subsequent developments including the collapse of Karabakh’s autonomous status, the decline of Russia’s presence in the region, and Baku’s growing alignment with the Western bloc and the Tel Aviv regime have led to increased political rifts and mutual distrust between

July 19, 2025

New Dynamics in the Azerbaijan-Syria Axis Amid Shifting Geopolitical Changes

By Dr Maryam Varij Kazemi Geopolitical Researcher International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Experts assert that the visit of Syrian President Ahmad al-Shara to Azerbaijan marks a pivotal moment in Baku’s evolving foreign policy toward the broader Middle East. This step not only reflects Azerbaijan’s intent to deepen bilateral ties with Syria following the power shift in Damascus but also signals Baku’s broader ambitions to play a more active role in regional security architecture and post-war recovery. For Syria, al-Shara’s visit to Baku is not merely ceremonial; it represents a move toward establishing new frameworks for cooperation, including energy and infrastructure development, logistics, and diplomacy. Historical Background of Bilateral Relations Azerbaijan-Syria relations are rooted in historical and cultural foundations, yet they are also shaped by complex strategic and geopolitical interests. Ties between the two countries date back to the Silk Road era and became more systematic after the 1970s. Following

July 16, 2025

West Asia on the Brink of Geopolitical Reconfiguration: Analysing the Strategies of the U.S., NATO, and Western Media in Confronting the Axis of Resistance

By Dr Masoumeh Mohammadi International Relations Researcher International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC The New Power Dynamics in West Asia The developments of 2025 in West Asia reveal a broad, multi-layered effort by the United States, NATO, and mainstream Western media to reconfigure West Asia’s geopolitics. This process employs a combination of military command, security diplomacy, and media dominance to curb the expanding influence of the Axis of Resistance, particularly Iran. The project leverages diverse mechanisms, including diplomatic visits, legal tools, psychological and media operations, and the redefinition of regional security concepts. The NATO Summit in The Hague and the West’s New Defence Strategy In June 2025, NATO’s summit in The Hague emphasised increasing member states’ defence spending to 5% of GDP by 2035. Of this, 3.5% is allocated to defence and 1.5% to security infrastructure development; a move signalling efforts to forge a new strategic cohesion against transnational threats,

July 10, 2025

Modernization of the Chinese Army and the Challenges Facing the United States

By Dr Maryam Varij Kazemi Researcher in Geopolitical Issues International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Introduction Despite economic challenges, China is equipping and modernising its military, backed by a rapidly expanding defence industrial base that develops and produces weapon systems. These systems are designed to deter the United States or, if deterrence fails, to put Beijing in a position to win a major conflict. According to official statistics, China’s defence spending increases every year, showing growth of over 7%. In this context, China has become the world’s largest shipbuilder — with a capacity 230 times greater than that of the U.S. — and its navy is now the largest in the world. Its arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles is expanding at an unprecedented rate. In addition, China’s nuclear stockpile is growing faster than any other country’s, and the military is pursuing innovative technologies and tactics, such as offensive drones.

July 9, 2025

Applying “Discourse Analysis” to Examine the “War of Narratives” Between NATO and Eastern Nations (Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS)

By Dr Seyed Salman Safavi International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Introduction The geopolitical landscape is increasingly characterised by a “war of narratives,” where NATO systematically distorts facts to undermine the Eastern world. This strategy is evident in content produced by academic institutions and media aligned with Western interests, which generate seemingly “pseudo-real” and “pseudo-scientific” information aimed at psychologically weakening Eastern nations. However, independent Eastern media outlets such as Al Jazeera, Al Mayadeen, Al-Akhbar, and SCO-affiliated media like Sputnik and CGTN, along with writers from countries represented by alliances like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) and BRICS, have actively resisted Western discursive dominance. They assert their agency in the face of American hegemony, despite a minority of demoralised or weak-willed individuals falling under the influence of the “neo-colonial Western narrative.” Discourse Analysis: A Methodological Overview Discourse Analysis (DA) is a qualitative research method focused on examining language within its

July 8, 2025

The Aftershocks of the 12-Day War: Israel’s Economy and the Future of Foreign Workers

By Fatemeh Khadem Shirazi Researcher and University Lecturer International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC What shook the Middle East and the world in June 2025 went beyond a mere military event. The 12-day war between Israel and Iran shattered traditional geopolitical boundaries and established new rules for regional security and the economy. Israel, with U.S. support, carried out targeted airstrikes on Iran’s nuclear facilities, while Iran retaliated with a barrage of missiles and drones aimed at Israel’s vital infrastructure. Like any modern conflict, this war had unpredictable yet profound effects on Israel’s economic and social fabric, consequences that were not easily contained. Israel’s economy had already been under pressure long before this crisis, grappling with the prolonged war in Gaza and Lebanon, a stagnant private sector, and capital flight (1). However, the 12-day war and Iran’s entry into the equation revealed a picture of systemic and unprecedented recession. According

July 8, 2025

A Strategic Reading of Iran’s Victory in the Confrontation with Israel and the United States (June 13-24, 2025)

Seyed Salman Safavi International Centre for Peace Studies – IPSC Introduction The period from June 13 to 24, 2025 witnessed the escalation of an unprecedented military confrontation between Israel and Iran, as Israel carried out its first attacks on Iran’s missile sites and nuclear facilities, followed by American strikes, Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel and the US air base in Qatar (Al-Udeid). This was followed by the fragile truce mediated by Qatar and The U.S.. (Washington Post, June 24, 2025). Al-Jazeera, June 24, 2025). Israel was defeated in four areas: military, legal, political, and moral: 1. Military dimension The attack failed to achieve its strategic objectives: It could not destroy Iran’s missile capability. It could not destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities. In contrast, Iran proved its missile capability. Iran dominated the skies of Israel, and the Iron Dome failed. Although the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes were aimed at destroying

June 26, 2025

Israel’s defeat by Iran: ceasefire and the path ahead

By Seyyed Sadr al-Din Safavi International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC On June 24, 2025, a fragile ceasefire mediated by the U.S. and Qatar came into effect between Iran and Israel, following Israel’s illegal war against Iran. Israel failed to achieve its objectives in its attack on Iran. Throughout the 11-day conflict, Israeli messaging regarding its military aims was at best confused. Iran effectively absorbed the initial damage caused by Israel’s strikes. By immediately restructuring its military command, Iran was able to leverage its defensive missile capabilities, UAVs, and diplomatic strength. Israel had assumed that decapitating Iran’s military leadership would deal a fatal blow to Iran. This miscalculation amongst others, combined with the coordinated and successful performance of Iran’s armed forces, resulted in Israel’s first decisive military defeat. From a military standpoint, Iran demonstrated its prowess by decisively overpowering Israel’s much-vaunted Iron Dome. Iran’s precision ballistic missile strikes successfully hit

June 24, 2025

U.S. Hegemony and the Threat to World Peace

By Seyed Salman Safavi International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC Abstract Based on historical facts, the military, political, and economic policies of the U.S. government against the majority of the world’s nations constitute the most important threat to global peace and security. The U.S. was the first country to build a nuclear weapon and the only country to have used it, killing more than 100,000 civilians in Japan with a nuclear bomb. The United States has waged numerous wars against the nations of the world in different parts of the world, such as the wars in Vietnam, Korea, Iraq, Afghanistan, and now the military attack on Iran (June 2025). The imposition of US economic sanctions on the nations of the world has caused many problems in the lives of millions of people across the world. America’s all-out support for Israel’s occupation and aggression has led to the displacement and death

June 23, 2025

The US and Israel’s illegal war against Iran: The violation of the rule of law

By Seyyed Sadr al-Din Safavi International Peace Studies Centre Israel’s attack on Iran on the 13th of June 2025, which began with the extrajudicial killing of Iranian nuclear scientists, the assassination of several Iranian military leaders, civilian deaths, and the attack on Iran’s nuclear sites which are under the monitor of the IAEA, and military sites across Iran and has expanded to include civilian areas including hospitals, and news organisations leading to more than 400 deaths and 2000 injuries is a violation of international law and the UN charter. Israel justified its war on Iran as pre-emptive self-defence under Article 51 of the UN charter, citing an existential threat from the Iranian nuclear program. However, as Iran has no nuclear weapons, nor is building nuclear weapons and had not demonstrated an imminent intent to attack Israel, Israel’s war on Iran constitutes the crime of aggression and is a violation of

June 22, 2025

Russia’s approach to the Taliban: From removing the label “Terrorist”, to deepening strategic cooperation

By Dr. Masoumeh Mohammadi International Relations Researcher International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Following the geopolitical developments in the region and the Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan, Russia has adopted a pragmatic and gradual policy toward the group. The removal of the Taliban from the list of terrorist organisations in April 2025, increased diplomatic interactions, security and economic cooperation, and efforts to mediate regional conflicts all indicate a shift in Moscow’s approach from confrontation to engagement with the Taliban. The Taliban’s return to power in Afghanistan in 2021 led to significant changes in the foreign policies of regional and extra-regional countries. Russia, considering its geopolitical and security interests, has adopted a cautious yet pragmatic approach toward the Taliban. This approach includes diplomatic interactions, security and economic cooperation, and efforts to solidify its position as a key player in regional dynamics. Removal of the Taliban from the List of Terrorist

May 22, 2025

Trump’s Strategy in the Middle East: Arms, Changes, and Isolation

By Fatemeh Khadem Shirazi Researcher and University Lecturer International Peace Studies Center – IPSC Note Donald Trump’s policies against Iran in the Middle East, particularly during his visit to Saudi Arabia, reflected a systematic effort to shift the balance of power in the region. Trump utilised tools such as economic pressure, psychological warfare, and direct and indirect humiliation of Iran to achieve his goals of curbing Iran’s regional influence. These policies closely resembled the “maximum pressure” strategy initiated at the start of his presidency. Withdrawing from the JCPOA and imposing extensive sanctions on Iran reinforced Trump’s belief that economic pressure and highlighting Iran’s domestic issues would eventually force Tehran to acquiesce to Washington’s demands. Trump employed diplomatic platforms, such as his visit to Riyadh, and psychological tools, including media campaigns, to amplify Iran’s domestic challenges, managerial weaknesses, and public dissatisfaction, aiming to create a rift between the Iranian people and

May 18, 2025

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