Sina Alizadeh
Researcher in International relations
International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC
1. Introduction
Recent developments in northern and northeastern Syria, characterized by escalating clashes between Joulani forces and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) as well as other groups, have created a conducive environment for the re-emergence of the terrorist group ISIS from its defensive posture and the revival of its sabotage networks. The mass escape of hundreds of dangerous ISIS elements from prisons under SDF control, particularly the incident at Al-Sha’addadi Prison in Al-Hasakah, marks the beginning of a new phase of instability. This event poses a serious threat to Iraq’s stability as a direct neighbor and the former heartland of ISIS’s self-proclaimed caliphate.
2. Context: Recent Developments and the Beginning of a New Phase of Instability
This article focuses on the escalation of local conflicts that have weakened control over critical facilities. The Al-Shaddadi Prison incident was a turning point that triggered a wave of escapes by dangerous prisoners. Given its extensive shared border with Syria, Iraq is immediately at the forefront of this new threat, as the escapees will likely attempt to quickly rejoin their covert networks in the western and northern provinces of the country.
3. Analysis of the Causes and Context of ISIS’s Resurgence: Beyond a Security Failure
To understand this phenomenon, one must look beyond a mere security failure. The following factors have played a key role in this resurgence:
3.1. Strategic Negligence of the US-Led International Coalition: The coalition’s performance in completely destroying ISIS was goal-oriented yet incomplete. Its focus on regime change in Damascus and lack of commitment to the lasting eradication of ISIS, allowed ISIS to preserve its structures in desert areas. UN reports citing the presence of 1,500 to 3,000 ISIS fighters in the Syrian deserts bear witness to this claim. This approach is a clear example of the “strategic exploitation of terrorism to weaken opposing governments and justify a permanent military presence in the region.”
3.2. Internal Instability in Syria and the Collapse of Prison Management: Recent clashes and shifting frontlines have severely weakened control over camps and prisons holding tens of thousands of ISIS-affiliated individuals, turning this into a regional security disaster that exponentially increases ISIS’s operational capacity.
3.3. The Role of External Drivers and Actors in Destabilization: Engineered developments in Syria, with the United States, the Israeli regime, and Turkey as its main actors, by creating greater instability, contribute to reviving the operational space for takfiri groups. Some strategic analyses believe that a controlled revival of the ISIS threat could serve as a tool to pressure independent regional governments, including Iraq, and perpetuate foreign military presence.
Direct Threats and Their Consequences for Iraq
This resurgence creates diverse and immediate threats for Iraq:
4.1. Immediate Security Threats: Given Iraq’s longest border with Syria, escaped ISIS elements will immediately attempt to cross the borders of the two countries and rejoin their covert networks in provinces such as Al-Anbar, Nineveh, Salah al-Din, and Kirkuk. This increases the risk of widespread and targeted terrorist attacks against cities, religious sites, and vital infrastructure.
4.2. Political-Social Threats: Iraq’s complex political and social landscape, in light of regional developments and existing economic challenges, could provide fertile ground for the ideological reproduction and recruitment of new members by ISIS. Camps such as Al-Hol in Syria have become dangerous hubs for promoting extremism. Any successful ISIS attack would undermine public trust in the ability of the central Iraqi government to provide security and could lead to the renewal of sectarian conflict, creating a vicious cycle of violence.
5. Essential Countermeasures: The Need for Multi-Layered Regional Cooperation
Confronting this shared threat requires deep, immediate, and operational cooperation between Iraq and the Islamic Republic of Iran, along with coordination with other relevant regional stakeholders. Countermeasures must be multi-layered and comprehensive:
5.1. Security-Military Level: Establishing a joint Iraqi-Iranian border command headquarters for real-time field intelligence exchange, coordinating joint clearance operations in border areas, and deploying advanced surveillance systems is essential. Iraq has already reinforced its borders with Syria, but these measures require intelligence and operational support. Executing joint, pre-emptive, and targeted operations against ISIS infiltration networks and potential safe havens, utilizing the experience of forces like the Popular Mobilization Forces (al-Hashd al-Sha’bi) and Iranian intelligence support, is a critical approach.
5.2. Political-Diplomatic Level: The Islamic Republic of Iran and the Iraqi government must, in international forums, hold the US-led coalition accountable for its failure to destroy ISIS and its disastrous management of prisons. They should demand the urgent formation of an international mechanism under UN supervision to organize the prisons and camps in Syria. Strengthening regional security dialogues and continuously exposing the role of external actors in destabilization are other necessary actions.
5.3. Social Security and Countering Extremist Ideology Level: Cooperation in creating a joint database of escaped terrorist elements, developing joint programs by religious institutions such as the seminaries of Najaf and Qom to counter takfiri propaganda and promote moderate interpretations of Islam, and enhancing joint economic projects in border regions to reduce the drivers of recruitment must be placed on the agenda.
6. Summary and Conclusion
The threat of ISIS’s resurgence following the developments in Syria is a tangible and immediate reality for Iraq and the entire region. Managing this threat is not possible through a purely security-oriented approach alone; it requires a multidimensional, intelligent strategy based on sincere regional cooperation. Given their shared threat and successful history of cooperation in defeating ISIS, the Islamic Republic of Iran and Iraq must be the core of this security convergence. This cooperation must go beyond declarative stances and translate into practical actions, the exchange of sensitive intelligence, joint operations, and coherent diplomatic pressure. History has shown that neglecting security warnings regarding ISIS—especially in light of the new US and Israeli strategy in the West Asia region—has consistently had disastrous consequences.