Seyed Salman Safavi
International Centre for Peace Studies – IPSC
Introduction
The period from June 13 to 24, 2025 witnessed the escalation of an unprecedented military confrontation between Israel and Iran, as Israel carried out its first attacks on Iran’s missile sites and nuclear facilities, followed by American strikes, Iran responded with missile attacks on Israel and the US air base in Qatar (Al-Udeid). This was followed by the fragile truce mediated by Qatar and The U.S.. (Washington Post, June 24, 2025). Al-Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
Israel was defeated in four areas: military, legal, political, and moral:
1. Military dimension
The attack failed to achieve its strategic objectives:
It could not destroy Iran’s missile capability.
It could not destroy Iran’s nuclear facilities.
In contrast, Iran proved its missile capability. Iran dominated the skies of Israel, and the Iron Dome failed.
Although the Israeli and U.S. airstrikes were aimed at destroying Iran’s nuclear facilities, intelligence estimates suggest that the strike only slowed the nuclear program for several months without destroying it. (Washington Post, June 24, 2025; Reuters, June 24, 2025).
Iran’s missile capability
Iran has demonstrated the ability to strike targets inside Israel, including bombing cities such as Beersheba, as well as the al-Udeid air base in Qatar, demonstrating the effectiveness of Iran’s missile deterrence system (The Washington Post, June 24, 2025; Al Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
2. Legal Dimension
Violation of international law
Several countries and organisation have condemned the Israeli and American attacks against civilian facilities and Iranian scientists. These actions are classified as violations of international humanitarian law and the principles of the UN Charter (Reuters, June 24, 2025; Al Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
3. Political Dimension
National unity in Iran
These attacks brought about a positive internal change among Iranians, especially the youth, who saw the missile response as an affirmation of national unity and resilience in the face of foreign aggression (Al-Jazeera, June 24 and 25, 2025).
Diplomatic isolation of Israel and the United States
Israel and the United States have seen widespread condemnation from China, Russia, Muslim countries, and Latin America, which has weakened their diplomatic standing and brought significant diplomatic and moral support to Iran (Washington Post, June 24, 2025; Reuters, June 24, 2025).
4. Moral Dimension
Iran’s Moral Legitimacy
Israel’s targeting of hospitals, scientists, and children has damaged its moral image and highlighted Iran’s response as a legitimate defensive measure against aggression (Washington Post, June 24, 2025; Al Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
5. Strategic Implications
A New Deterrence Balance
Experts concluded that Iran has regained the strategic initiative and now retains three key pressure cards, including missile capability, the threat of the Strait of Hormuz, and access to its regional proxies (Business Insider, June 24, 2025).
Return to the Nuclear Negotiating Table
The U.S. aims to reopen the nuclear negotiations with Iran, especially on the control of nuclear enrichment and Iran’s stockpile of 60 % enriched uranium (Al-Jazeera, June 24, 2025).
Results
Despite the loss of life and material, Iran has proven to be a strategic power that can withstand a joint U.S.-Israeli attack. The timing of the ceasefire and de-escalation provided an opportunity for Tehran to exercise its sovereignty and strengthen its position in the international system, emphasising the importance of moving from a unipolar system to a multipolar system in which deterrence and sovereignty should be merged with the rules of international law and moral legitimacy.
Resources
CNN. (2025, June 25). Early US intel assessment suggests strikes on Iran did not destroy nuclear sites
Reuters. (2025, June 25). US strikes may have set back Iran nuclear program only months.
Reuters. (2025, June 24). U.S. initial damage report: Iran nuclear program set back by months, not obliterated.
Reuters. (2025, June 24). Trump announces Israel‑Iran ceasefire.
Washington Post. (2025, June 24). Israel‑Iran ceasefire holds as region urges new round of diplomacy (CAIRO).
Washington Post. (2025, June 24). How Trump pivoted from bombing Iran to announcing a ceasefire.
Business Insider. (2025, June 24). Iran’s military strength is a fraction of Israel’s. Tehran still has 3 key cards it can play.
BBC. (2025, June 24). What we know about Iran’s attack on US base in Qatar.
الجزيرة. (2025, يونيو 24). حرب إسرائيل وإيران مباشر.. اتفاق لوقف إطلاق النار وبزشكيان ونتنياهو يتحدثان عن نتائج الحرب.
الجزيرة. (2025, يونيو 24). ما ملامح مرحلة ما بعد وقف إطلاق النار بين إيران وإسرائيل؟
الجزيرة. (2025, يونيو 25). هل يصمد وقف إطلاق النار بين إيران وإسرائيل؟ محللون يجيبون.
الجزيرة. (2025, يونيو 24). إيران تؤكد التزامها المشروط باتفاق وقف إطلاق النار.