Dr. Maryam Variej Kazemi
Researcher in Geopolitical Affairs
International Peace Studies Center – IPSC
From April 2023 to April 2024, the water level of the Caspian Sea basin relative to global sea levels dropped from -27.90 to -25.28, marking the lowest level observed in the past 30 years. Predictions indicate that if current patterns persist, the Caspian Sea could lose up to 34% of its surface area and 18 meters of its depth by the year 2100, rendering vast stretches of shallow coastal lands uninhabitable. This would severely impact the livelihoods of over 10 million people living along the coasts, many of whom rely on fishing and maritime trade for their survival (1).
Although local communities around the Caspian Sea do not view the declining water levels as unusual—believing that the Caspian has always been subject to regular cycles of expansion and contraction, with water levels rising for 25 years and then declining for another 25, creating a 50-year cycle—there is growing concern about the sea’s shrinking size, reminiscent of the catastrophic drying of the Aral Sea.
Currently, the crisis of declining water levels is most acutely felt by those living along the northeastern coast of Kazakhstan. Over the past two decades, the sea level has dropped by nearly two meters, and in some of Kazakhstan’s shallowest areas, the coastline has receded by up to 18 kilometres. The Kashagan oil field is now at risk, as water levels have fallen so low that support ships can no longer reach drilling platforms. Thriving ports in coastal regions, such as Mangystau in Kazakhstan, are implementing emergency plans to reroute logistics, relocate ports, and adapt infrastructure in anticipation of further changes in sea levels. These developments could have long-term negative geopolitical and economic repercussions for Kazakhstan and other coastal nations (2).
Moreover, the sea’s ecology is under threat due to multiple factors, including oil extraction, river and sea pollution, rising water levels, biological damage, the decline of Caspian seals, and the absence of a legal framework among neighbouring countries. Massive infrastructure projects have severely impacted the surrounding ecosystems, causing long-term damage to the sea. Human activities around the Caspian have disrupted the delicate balance of this highly sensitive ecosystem. Additionally, the shrinking of the Caspian Sea could significantly affect the region’s climate (3).
Coastal cities like Atyrau, once dependent on tourism and maritime trade, now face economic collapse as receding shorelines make ports increasingly difficult to operate.
Public health is also at risk. Studies have linked exposure to polluted water, greenhouse gas emissions, and contaminated soil to rising rates of cancer and respiratory diseases among local populations, underscoring the urgent need for mitigation efforts. Meanwhile, severe water pollution has led the International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) to classify all five species of sturgeon as endangered in its 2022 Red List assessment (4).
The governance of the Caspian Sea is as complex as its ecosystem. The coastal nations—Azerbaijan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan—have yet to establish a unified framework for sustainable resource management. Existing agreements are often undermined by competing national interests, leaving the region’s future uncertain. The 2018 Convention on the Legal Status of the Caspian Sea marked progress but lacks enforceable environmental protections. Many oil extraction agreements date back to the 1990s, when environmental oversight was minimal. These agreements urgently need revision to align with modern standards and address escalating climate risks. The Tehran Convention for the Protection of the Marine Environment of the Caspian Sea and its protocols provide a crucial legal basis for environmental cooperation, but their effectiveness is limited by poor implementation and the absence of binding commitments among coastal states. Protocols under the convention, such as those addressing oil spills and pollution from land-based sources, offer a framework for action but lack robust enforcement mechanisms (5).
A 2020 article titled “Beyond Changing Sea Levels” predicted that without intervention, the Caspian Sea could lose 9 to 18 meters of its depth by the end of this century, meaning up to one-third of its surface area could vanish. One major cause of the declining water levels is Russia’s infrastructure projects on the Ural and Volga rivers, which retain significant amounts of water. Reservoirs on the Volga River, which alone supplies 80% of the Caspian’s water, primarily support agricultural and energy needs while also serving as a key source of drinking water for Russian cities.
Although all Caspian littoral states are allied with Russia, geopolitical tensions hinder resolution of this crisis. Moscow has prioritized its economic needs to sustain its war efforts in Ukraine and has used water disputes to pressure neighbouring countries like Kazakhstan into adopting more supportive stances. Experts argue that water resources should not be politicized, and there should be no conditions where Kazakhstan must support Russia in the Ukraine war to receive more water.
Undoubtedly, the declining water levels of the Caspian Sea will bring not only disease outbreaks, migration, and the collapse of coastal economies in the five regional countries but also risks such as piracy, illegal cargo seizures, and ongoing geopolitical tensions. These factors will persistently disrupt maritime transport markets in Caspian coastal states. Prolonged conflicts, sanctions, and resulting restrictions could also lead to sudden changes in port operations, longer and safer shipping routes, increased risks and costs for maritime transport, and subsequent disruptions to food supply chains.
Keywords: Caspian Sea, declining water levels, pollution, economy, coastal nations, Maryam Variej Kazemi