Dr. Maryam Variej Kazemi
Researcher in Geostrategic Studies
International Peace Studies Center – IPSC
Libya’s geostrategic position and its role in the production and export of oil and gas mean that internal developments in Libya are not only vital for its people but also for neighbouring countries in North Africa and across the Mediterranean in Southern Europe. Therefore, mitigating or preventing conditions that could lead to Libya becoming a failed state is of critical importance.
The geostrategic significance of Libya implies that foreign powers will not allow any single party to achieve a decisive victory. This is because external intervenors are pursuing their own interests rather than Libya’s. The substantial financial contributions of Türkiye and Qatar to Libya after the revolution were distributed equally among all parties. Thus, anyone who claims that Qatar only supports Islamists is mistaken. The involvement of these countries in the first year of the revolution was beneficial for Libyans. However, the interference of the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt aims to negate the concept of Libya becoming a democratic country (1).
Libya’s strategic location at the heart of the Mediterranean, serving as a gateway to the African Sahara, along with its significant oil and gas reserves and revolutionary developments, means the country plays a crucial role in the ideological and economic objectives of regional and global powers. With the collapse of the remnants of the state and Libya’s instability, countries like Egypt and France have turned their attention to Libya, seeing it as an opportunity to establish a friendly nation that could serve their economic, security, and regional policy interests.
The Geostrategic Crisis
The Libyan civil war has evolved into a growing competitive geostrategic struggle. A resolution mediated by the United Nations, supported by non-aligned countries, is the most suitable means for sustainable de-escalation, enabling Libya to restore its sovereignty. The conflict has claimed tens of thousands of lives, created instability across North Africa and its coasts, and become a focal point for geostrategic competition.
Since April 2019, the civil war in Libya intensified, particularly in the west, where the Libyan National Army (LNA), led by General Khalifa Haftar, besieged Tripoli in an attempt to overthrow the UN-supported Government of National Accord (GNA). The LNA and its affiliated forces carried out at least 850 precise drone strikes and 170 other attacks by bomber aircraft between April 2019 and January 2020. Reports indicate that around 60 precise airstrikes were conducted by Egyptian and Emirati fighter jets. Meanwhile, the GNA and its affiliated forces launched approximately 250 airstrikes. The economic impact of these conflicts caused Libya’s GDP to decline by over 12%. The LNA’s blockade of oil terminals since January 2020 further deepened the economic crisis, reducing oil production from 1,000,000 barrels in December 2019 to about 120,000 barrels per day. This resulted in nearly $2 billion in monthly losses for the state-owned oil company.
While the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt supported rival factions in the early stages of the conflict, the geostrategic stakes escalated from September 2019 onward with the deployment of Russian mercenaries backing Haftar’s forces. This also accelerated the intervention of Turkish ground forces in support of the GNA (2).
With foreign actors consolidating around Libya’s two main factions, the conflict has become increasingly internationalised. This internationalisation poses a geostrategic nightmare for UN stabilisation efforts, exacerbating the risks of civil war and creating an even greater threat to international security.
Libya as a Stage for Geostrategic and Geopolitical Competition
The Libyan conflict has transformed into a dangerous geostrategic competition for influence among global powers, pitting the UAE, Egypt, and Russia against Qatar, Europe, and Türkiye. While the UAE, Qatar, and Egypt supported rival factions from the early stages of the conflict, foreign actors deployed Syrian, Chadian, and Sudanese mercenaries, drones, ground-to-air defence systems, and other advanced assets in an effort to shift the balance in favour of their proxy forces.
NATO’s intervention in Libya in 2011, primarily conducted from the air, drew the most attention during the Arab Spring. However, the rival interventions of Qatar and the UAE—equipping, training, and aiding revolutionary militias on the ground—were less known, setting the stage for Libya’s revolutionary outcomes. These two Gulf states coordinated their support through proxies representing their divergent interests.
Russia has long used the Libyan conflict to advance its relations with Egypt and the UAE while expanding its influence on Europe’s southern borders and securing access to Libya’s natural resources. Sensing an international vacuum and an opportunity to exert influence in an oil-rich country south of the Mediterranean, Russia shifted its focus from Syria.
On the other hand, Türkiye has maintained its economic interest in Libya, with over $20 billion in pending contracts that could bolster its struggling economy if resumed. Moreover, Haftar’s campaign strengthened the influence of the UAE and Egypt in North Africa, posing a significant obstacle to Türkiye’s regional ambitions. Haftar’s offensive on Tripoli forced Türkiye to either counter the UAE-Egypt-Russia gambit for Libya or submit to it, while also presenting an opportunity for Türkiye to advance its interests in the Eastern Mediterranean. Following the discovery of significant gas reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean in February 2018, a coalition of Greece, Cyprus, Israel, and Egypt began developing security and economic infrastructure, which Türkiye views as a direct threat to its economic interests and dominant security role in the region (3).
Outlook
Libya is considered part of the geo-maritime space of the Mediterranean, where Moscow and Washington pursue their respective political-strategic priorities. Libya’s strategic and military importance lies in its role as a focal point for equipment aimed at supporting and protecting the conflicting interests of the two Mediterranean rivals, Russia and the United States. The determination of these powers to maintain military superiority in Libya while safeguarding key maritime communication lines and access routes to and from the Mediterranean could further escalate the crisis and challenge regional security.
Keywords: Libya, geostrategic, USA, NATO, Russia, Türkiye, Mediterranean
References
1- Mohammed El-Katiri, (2022) State-Building Challenges in a Post-Revolution Libya,, https://ssi.armywarcollege.edu/SSI-Media/Recent-Publications/Display/Article/3629390/state-building-challenges-in-a-post-revolution-libya/
2- Tarek, Megerisi, (2020) Geostrategic Dimensions of Libya’s Civil War,,https://africacenter.org/publication/geostrategic-dimensions-libya-civil-war/
3-, Intissar, Fakir (2023) The Western Mediterranean: Energy and Geopolitics,, https://www.mei.edu/blog/western-mediterranean-energy-and-geopolitics