Dr. Masoumeh Mohammadi
Geopolitical Affairs Researcher
International Peace Studies Center (IPSC)
Since 2015, Russia has been directly involved in the Syrian crisis, becoming one of the primary supporters of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. This intervention aimed to prevent the collapse of Assad’s government, protect Moscow’s strategic interests in the region, and counter Western influence. However, the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government marks a turning point in Syria’s developments, ushering Russia’s policies and role in the country into a new phase. Vladimir Putin, Russia’s president, has acknowledged that Assad’s fall does not signify Russia’s defeat in Syria, demonstrating that the country has long-term plans for its presence and influence in the Middle East.
Reassessing Russia’s Key Interests in Syria
In the post-Assad era, Russia continues to pursue its strategic objectives, though its strategies may undergo adjustments. The strategic importance of the Tartus and Hmeimim bases remains paramount, and Russia will strive to use these bases to maintain its military and strategic influence in the region. Syria remains a critical platform for Moscow in Middle East geopolitics. Russia seeks to leverage Assad’s fall as an opportunity to redefine its role in the region’s future developments. Despite changes in Syria’s political structure, Russia will likely focus on reconstruction projects, energy resource extraction, and economic agreements.
Russia’s Response to the Fall of Assad’s Government
In response to Bashar al-Assad’s fall, Vladimir Putin has emphasized that these developments do not mark the end of Russia’s role in Syria. This stance highlights Russia’s flexibility in addressing Syria’s political shifts. Russia will attempt to engage with new political groups and actors in Syria to safeguard its interests. Moscow remains concerned about the expansion of extremist groups like ISIS in Syria and will likely continue military actions to counter these threats. Russia will strengthen its role as a mediator in Syria’s peace and reconstruction process and may participate more actively in negotiations with regional and global powers to shape Syria’s future.
Challenges for Russia in Syria After Assad’s Fall
The fall of Assad’s government presents new challenges for Russia that could threaten its influence in Syria. Turkey, Iran, the United States, and Arab states are each vying for greater power and influence in Syria, potentially diminishing Russia’s role. Assad’s fall could create a power vacuum in Syria, leading to increased internal conflicts and security threats. International sanctions against Syria and Russia will also complicate Moscow’s economic and military presence.
Opportunities for Russia in the New Landscape
At the same time, Assad’s fall could create opportunities for Russia. By engaging with new political groups and local actors, Russia can rebuild its influence in Syria. Changes in Syria’s political structure may reduce Western pressure on Russia and open doors for greater diplomatic cooperation. Russia can exploit the gaps in Syria’s economic and infrastructural framework to expand its economic presence and secure long-term investments.
Implications of Assad’s Fall for Russia’s Foreign Policy
While the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s government may be a tactical setback for Russia, strategically, it could provide Moscow with an opportunity to redefine its role in the Middle East. These developments allow Russia to preserve its long-term interests through diplomatic flexibility and military power. Overall, in the post-Assad era, Russia will adopt a multifaceted and adaptable approach. Vladimir Putin’s insistence that Assad’s fall does not equate to Russia’s defeat underscores Moscow’s long-term planning for its presence in Syria and the Middle East. Despite challenges such as Syria’s internal instability and competition with other regional players, Russia will continue leveraging military strength, active diplomacy, and economic opportunities to maintain its position in Syria and the region.
Russia’s Approach to Syria’s Future
In the post-Assad era, Russia will pursue new strategies to preserve its role in Syria and the region. A sustained military presence in the strategic Tartus and Hmeimim bases is vital, and Russia will likely reinforce its military forces there. Russia will likely act as a mediator in establishing a new political structure in Syria, ensuring its continued influence in the country’s political dynamics. Moscow will strive to balance its relations with regional countries like Turkey, Iran, and Arab states, thereby strengthening its position in the Middle East. Under the pretext of counterterrorism, Russia will justify its military presence in Syria while continuing to enhance its military capabilities in the region.