By Davood Ahmadzadeh
Expert on West Asian Affairs
International Peace Studies Center – IPSC
Trump’s Electoral Victory and Its Implications
The return of Donald Trump to the White House and its media coverage in the Middle East and Europe continue to be interpreted in varied and sometimes contradictory ways. Trump managed to defeat the Democrats and their representatives (Biden and Harris) once again by forming a strong electoral campaign (with figures like Elon Musk) and focusing on two key electoral issues: the economy and immigration. He strategically capitalised on the structural weaknesses of the Democratic Party and the personal shortcomings of Joe Biden and his vice president as political rivals in domestic and foreign policy to achieve his goals and secure victory. As a result, Republicans also gained a majority in Congress and the Senate.
Thus, with Trump’s re-entry into the White House and the Democrats’ loss of power, changes are expected not only in domestic policy, particularly regarding immigration, but also in foreign policy, especially in the Middle East and peace efforts. The first question that comes to mind for the people of the region is whether the ongoing turmoil and widespread regional war between Israel and the Axis of Resistance will continue. The pressing question is: What is Trump seeking in the Middle East? Is there a genuine intention to extinguish the flames of conflict in Gaza and southern Lebanon and restore calm to the region? How will developments in the region unfold under Trump’s presence?
Trump’s Unconventional Approach: Projection of Power Over Protocol
During his first four-year presidential term (2016–2020), Trump proved that as a power-obsessed individual, he would use any tactic to achieve his goals and is not bound by political principles or protocols. His unique personality, including his personalisation of power and willingness to negotiate even with America’s staunch enemies (such as his desire to end the war in Ukraine through talks with Putin or resolve the Korean Peninsula crisis by engaging with North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un), suggests that he will pursue reconciliation and dialogue with conflicting parties in the Middle East. In this regard, the role of influential countries in the Middle East crisis, such as Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and even Iran, is significant. During his electoral campaign, Trump repeatedly spoke about reducing tensions and establishing a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon.
The Abraham Accords and the Fallout from October 7
While Trump had a special relationship with the political leaders of the Israeli Government through his son-in-law, Jared Kushner, and sought to normalise relations between Israel and Arab states, particularly Saudi Arabia, under the Abraham Accords, the October 7 attacks have derailed this process. This war has drastically altered the balance of power in the region, and the normalisation of Arab-Israeli relations, which was expected to accelerate with the signing of the Abraham Accords in 2020, now faces serious obstacles. It seems unlikely that full diplomatic relations between Israel and Saudi Arabia will be established in the short or medium term. The primary victim of the October 7 war is Gaza, where over a year of destruction and humanitarian tragedies has forced Arab countries with closer ties to Israel to reconsider their policies. Saudi Arabia, for instance, has conditioned any normalisation of relations with Israel on an immediate ceasefire and the establishment of an independent Palestinian state based on the two-state solution.
Netanyahu’s War Policies and Trump’s Dilemma
The warmongering policies of Netanyahu and his security team, aimed at expanding the regional war with the Axis of Resistance led by Iran, were supported by American Democrats. However, with the shift of power in the White House, the continuation of this regional war will pose a significant obstacle to the new administration’s Middle East policies. While some speculate that Trump’s close ties with Netanyahu and extremist groups in Israel will embolden Israel to act unilaterally in the region and strike Iran and its interests more aggressively, it is unlikely that Trump will allow the current situation to persist, given the regional dynamics and the failures of Netanyahu’s aggressive policies in Gaza and southern Lebanon. During his campaign, Trump repeatedly accused Democrats and Biden of incompetence in formulating and executing effective policies in West Asia, and one of his key promises was to end the war and reduce regional tensions.
The Make Up of Trump’s Foreign Policy and Security Team
Some of the confrontational policies during Trump’s first term, particularly regarding Iran, stemmed from the influence of anti-Iranian figures and staunch supporters of Israel, such as Pompeo and Nikki Haley. As Secretary of State, Pompeo served Israel’s interests in the Middle East unquestioningly and denied any rights for Palestinians. In his new term, Trump faces numerous domestic and foreign challenges, especially in the Middle East. Drawing on his past experiences and the failures of previous policies, he is likely to rebuild his security team and create new opportunities by appointing more moderate figures.
Middle East Crisis and the policy of America First
One of Trump’s central and recurring campaign slogans was “Make America Great Again” (America First). To reduce military and security costs in the region and globally, the only viable mechanism is to decrease conflicts and resolve the chronic Middle East crisis, particularly the Palestinian-Israeli conflict. Trump’s view of the Middle East through an economic and profit-driven lens (unlike the Democrats’ security-focused approach with a human rights veneer) presents a fresh opportunity for dialogue and negotiation among conflicting parties. Moreover, Trump’s close allies in the region, particularly the Gulf Cooperation Council countries led by Saudi Arabia, seek to end the war and pursue a peaceful resolution to the Palestinian issue. Maintaining strategic relations with traditional Arab allies is imperative, and the White House must pay the price through closer economic and military cooperation. The first step on this challenging path is ending the wars in Gaza and Lebanon. Any delay in this matter will further alienate Arab nations from Washington and push them closer to Beijing.
Strained Relationship With Europe
One consequence of Trump’s victory in the U.S. is the growing rift with European allies over regional issues and the war in Ukraine. The transatlantic divide over Ukraine will widen due to Trump’s greater inclination to negotiate with Putin and make concessions to Russia to end the war. In such a scenario, the lack of cohesion between Europe and the U.S. will further complicate joint decision-making in the Middle East. Since Trump does not believe in ideological foreign policy and evaluates everything based on interests and gains, he advocates for withdrawing American troops and reducing military expenditures in the region. This could pave the way for dialogue and negotiations between Iran and Arab countries.