By Seyyed Sadr al-Din Safavi
International Peace Studies Centre – IPSC
On June 24, 2025, a fragile ceasefire mediated by the U.S. and Qatar came into effect between Iran and Israel, following Israel’s illegal war against Iran.
Israel failed to achieve its objectives in its attack on Iran. Throughout the 11-day conflict, Israeli messaging regarding its military aims was at best confused.
Iran effectively absorbed the initial damage caused by Israel’s strikes. By immediately restructuring its military command, Iran was able to leverage its defensive missile capabilities, UAVs, and diplomatic strength.
Israel had assumed that decapitating Iran’s military leadership would deal a fatal blow to Iran. This miscalculation amongst others, combined with the coordinated and successful performance of Iran’s armed forces, resulted in Israel’s first decisive military defeat.
From a military standpoint, Iran demonstrated its prowess by decisively overpowering Israel’s much-vaunted Iron Dome. Iran’s precision ballistic missile strikes successfully hit vital military and strategic targets in Israel, a development that shocked both Israel and its American ally.
The effective response of Iran’s military to Israel’s aggression, demonstrated that the Israeli military is incapable of waging even a limited war against a powerful adversary. The reports of the exhaustion of Arrow-3 missiles and large number of missile impacts are a sign of the weakness of Israel’s homeland defence.
Israel’s failure to destroy Iranian nuclear sites, and its inability to sustain operations due to Iran’s successful retaliatory strikes, which inflicted unprecedented damage on strategic and military targets in Israel, prompted the United States to join the conflict. On June 22, 2025, the U.S. targeted three Iranian nuclear sites, including Fordow, which Iran had already evacuated.
Iran’s measured response to the U.S. strikes, targeting the Al-Udeid Airbase in Qatar, the largest U.S. military base in West Asia, demonstrated Iran’s strategic restraint and its capability to deliver measured and proportional retaliation.
Israel is a small country that is fully dependent on the United States for its offensive and defensive military capabilities. In this 11 day conflict Israel has shown significant defensive weaknesses, and in terms of offensive capability has shown it is unable to achieve its objectives. Iran’s peaceful nuclear program, remains intact. Iran’s ballistic missile program is effective and remains intact. The Iranian government and nation stand more united than ever.
From a diplomatic perspective Iran also emerged victorious garnering unprecedented support from Arab neighbours, the Muslim world and the Global South, all of whom strongly condemned Israel’s illegal attack and its violation of the UN charter.
For the fragile ceasefire which began on the 24th of June 2025 to hold, certain realities must be acknowledged, in order to avoid misinformation and miscalculation:
- Israel is the aggressor, and its attack on Iran violates the UN Charter.
- Israel is committing genocide against the Palestinian people in Gaza.
- Israel has a history of violating ceasefires, as seen in Lebanon and Gaza.
- Every nation has the right to self-defence.
- International law is effective, only when it is applied equally to all.
- The failure of International organisations to fulfil their basic functions, is a threat to the rule of law and the international order.
- Iran’s peaceful nuclear program remains intact and will continue. Knowledge cannot be destroyed.
- Iran will continue uranium enrichment, within Iran, as it is Iran’s legal right under international law.
- Iran will not negotiate over its missile program.
- Iran will respond in kind to any act of aggression.
- Israel is the primary source of instability in West Asia. Its genocide against the Palestinian nation must end, and perpetrators must be held accountable. Israel’s military aggression and violations of the sovereignty of regional countries must cease. As it is the United States government that enables Israel to commit these crimes, it is the United States that can prevent Israel continuing its genocide against the Palestinian nation, and endangering regional and global peace and security.
- Lasting peace in West Asia, is achieved through close diplomatic, economic and security cooperation between the countries of the region. A regional security framework, with the participation of the regional countries should be established, to secure long term peace, stability and prosperity in the region.
Pragmatic, realistic diplomacy is the only path to achieving a just and lasting peace in West Asia.
