Upcoming Legislative and Presidential Elections in Egypt

Hanan Nasser

International Peace Studies Centre (IPSC)

peace-ipsc.org

Upcoming legislative and presidential elections, the changing scene in the Middle East and speculation over President Hosni Mubarak’s successor have raised questions on the future of Egypt domestic and foreign policies, amid new emerging powers in the Middle East and increasing demands for political reform in the country.

Mubarak has yet to announce whether or not he will be seeking another term in the September 2011 presidential election, as eyes look at possible successors with his son Gamal Mubarak being seen as most likely to succeed his father after 29 years in power. However, another serious contender has emerged on the political scene reinvigorating the Egyptian opposition an

Speculation that Mubarak would not seek a new term are fueled by Arab press reports about the president’s health. A report in the London-based Al-Quds al-Arabi Tuesday said that Mubarak travelled to France on a surprise visit to conduct a new round of medical tests. The illness was not specified. Mubarak underwent a gallbladder surgery in Germany in March to remove a “benign tumor”.

In the meantime, Gamal Mubarak on Tuesday outlined the ruling National Democratic Party’s platform placing “accountability”, human rights and the combat against corruption as top priorities. The younger Mubarak, who heads the NDP’s policy committee, appeared to be setting the tone of the platform ahead of the upcoming legislative elections, scheduled in November 2010. The move also aims to contain public anger as a case of police brutality which led to the death of activist Khaled Said provoked anti-government demonstrations, Reuters reported.

It remains to be seen to whether the NDP will fulfill such commitments in the years to come or Egypt will continue to see more of the same.

In 2007, Mubarak had pledged to lift the state of emergency in place since 1981. Most recently, Parliament extended the state of emergency was extended in May 2010 for another two years despite growing calls for ending it. The government said that the emergency law would only be applied to cases of “terrorism” and drug trafficking. However, a broad and vague definition of terrorism allows for the executive power to construct any act as terrorist under the banner of protecting “public peace”. In April 2006, Parliament approved Mubarak’s request for a two-year renewal after he pledged to lift the state of emergency when a new anti-terrorism law had been expected to come into force in 2007. However, since then, neither the state of emergency has been lifted nor the new law introduced.

The mounting calls for major political and legal reforms have been given momentum with the January return to Egypt of Mohamed ElBaradei, the former director of the UN International Atomic Energy Agency. Since then, ElBaradei a well respected international figure has been leading a campaign for political and constitutional reforms and has helped reinvigorate the political scene in Egypt, and has not ruled out the possibility of   himself becoming a serious presidential contender. He created the National Front for Change in February to push for constitutional reforms and social justice. He has also been amongst important figures present in a major protest against police brutality last month following the Khaled Said case.

However, the former UN diplomat is faced with a legal hurdle that has lessened his chances to run in the 2011 presidential election. Article 75 of the Egyptian Constitution states that for a presidential candidate to be accepted he/she should be a member of a senior member of a political party for at least one year from running for president. Constitutional amendments that remove such restrictions are among the priorities of ElBaradei’s campaigns.

The challenge facing ElBaradei is to maintain the momentum he has created in order to prove that there is a real chance for change in Egypt and to put more pressure on the state to force it to carry out the required reforms. As Egyptian analyst Amr Hamzawy of Carnegie Endowment for International Peace wrote, ElBardei must “call on the opposition to be more active in terms of developing its popular support and formulating well-defined political programs. These programs should be designed to promote democracy and development within Egypt”.

The future president of Egypt must also deal with the emergence of new regional super powers amid the demise of others once seen as the pillars of decision making. Egypt’s waning geopolitical role has especially helped pave the way for the emergence of a new non-Arab regional super power; Turkey.

In its attempt to establish itself as a key player in the region, Turkey acted as a mediator in indirect peace negotiations between Syria and Israel and has worked to promote diplomacy and strengthen peaceful ties with its neighbors.

Egypt has also lost most its traditional popularity among the Arab and Muslim masses, who view it as aiding a crippling Israeli blockade on the Gaza Strip. Last year, Egypt decided to construct a massive iron wall along its border with the Gaza Strip.

In parallel, Turkey’s popularity has soared in the Arab and Muslim world especially following the recent fatal Israeli raid against the Turkish Freedom Flotilla in which eight Turks and an American with Turkish descent were killed. The attack proved detrimental for Turkish-Israeli ties, with Ankara recalling its ambassador to Tel Aviv and reducing military cooperation. Turkey has warned it will break diplomatic ties with its long time ally if Israel does not meet Turkish demands for a formal apology, an international probe into the attack and compensations for the families of the victims. Amid the international, regional and domestic outcry to the raid and the situation in Gaza, Egypt moved to appease public opinion and ordered the opening of its Rafah crossing for travel and humanitarian aid last month. Before that, it had kept it closed opening it for humanitarian cases twice a week. In another indication that Egypt has lost its strong standing, five upstream countries decided last month to sign a new Nile basin treaty without the consent of Egypt and Sudan.

However, Egypt will not be carrying out any major shifts in its policies toward the United States and Israel which have been consolidated over 29 years of Mubarak’s rule. For its part, the United States will also not support any major changes that could bring parties or movements that are seen anti-American or anti-Israeli to power.

Although analysts see a possibility of democracy if the elections are held on fair basis thus permitting Egypt find its original status in the region since the domestic political situation in Arab countries are connected to regional developments. Consequently, any radical changes will have a direct impact on vital issues in the region primarily the peace process. However the chances of such an overhaul taking place in the near future are very slim and thus any major shifts in the Egyptian foreign relations, primarily with the United States and Israel, is unlikely.

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